Should You Believe Management Forecasts when Picking Stocks?

by Tom Murcko
When investigating a stock, one useful exercise is to compare what the management forecast in the past with what actually happened. Some underpromise and overdeliver, but more overpromise and underdeliver. Most CEOs are experts at enthusiastically touting the future success of their companies, and it's easy to get swept up in the hype and hyperbole, so checking prior annual reports to see whether the management was right about earlier forecasts is a useful reality check.
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