Using COT (Commitment of Traders) Report To Forecast FX Movementsby Kathy Lien
One of the drawbacks of the FX spot market is the lack of volume data, but to compensate for this, many traders have turned to the futures market to gauge positioning. Every week, the CFTC publishes a Commitment of Traders report, detailing commercial and non-commercial positioning. Based upon empirical analysis, there are three different ways that futures positioning can be used to forecast price trends in the foreign-exchange spot market: flips in positioning, extreme levels and changes in open interest. It is important to keep in mind, however, that techniques using these premises work better for some currencies than others.