The idea behind the carry is quite straightforward. The
trader goes long the
currency with a
high interest rate and finances that
purchase with a currency with a
low interest
rate. In 2005, one of the best pairings was the NZD/JPY
cross. The New Zealand
economy, spurred by huge
commodity demand from China and a hot
housing market, has seen its rates rise to 7.25% and
stay there (at the time of
writing), while Japanese rates have remained at 0%. A trader
going long the NZD/JPY could have harvested 725 basis points in
yield alone. On a 10:1
leverage basis, the
carry trade in NZD/JPY could have produced a 72.5%
annual return from interest rate differentials alone without any
contribution from
capital appreciation. Now you can understand why the carry
trade is so popular! But before you rush out and
buy the next high-yield pair, be aware that when the carry trade is unwound, the declines can be rapid and severe. This
process is known as carry trade
liquidation and occurs when the
majority of speculators decide that the carry trade may not have future potential. With every trader seeking to
exit his or her
position at once, bids disappear and the profits from interest rate differentials are not nearly enough to
offset the capital losses. Anticipation is the key to success: the
best time to position in the carry is at the beginning of the rate-tightening
cycle, allowing the trader to ride the move as interest rate differentials increase.